Common Sense vs. "experts"

Good Evening y'all,

I thought the attached article may be of note to those of you whom I have advised over time. The article brings to light something that I personally believe in, when it comes to money sometimes you cannot rely on an "expert" because in reality "experts" do not know any more about the future than you or I. I have been complimented by many of you (Thank you VERY MUCH for that) for my intelligence and assistance with your investments. While you have honored me with your trust and confidence in my abilities, I am here to re-iterate that I am no expert nor wish to be thought of as one, especially in these current markets. Like those in my field who are considered "experts" (cough-cough) I only have the information in front of me to make decisions with. I refer to Teddy Roosevelt's advice, "Do the best you can with what you have where you are."

I am thankful that I have been right more times than wrong for your sakes as I take it to heart when a investment decision I suggest goes awry. Putting your faith in me and my abilities is not something I take lightly as we are taking about your money.....your savings.....your future. Once money is lost, it's not always so easy to get back. Which brings me to the current state of the markets and the attached article. There has been a great deal of turbulence in the markets as of late beginning with the sub-prime fallout, China's economy on the brink of collapse, and now we have the issue with Greece. Emotions are running high and I would guess most of you are concerned about your finances. Understandable, as I am in the same boat. The biggest question that I am assuming y'all have is "What is safe?" I'm going to be the bearer of bad news.....NOTHING is 100% safe and that's the truth. This does NOT mean that all hope is lost as there are "smart bets" you may make with your money.

While the markets in general may be wild and crazy, up 350 points one day and down 400 the next, it is not indicative of every company out there. The key factor in all of this are your individual investments. Which companies are you invested in? Are those companies viable? What is the short term and/or long term outlook for those companies? Again, markets may fluctuate and it is normal for stocks to fluctuate with the markets, however, the amount of fluctuation is largely dependent on the strength of the company itself against current events in the world. If anyone would like further explanation on this I would be happy to elaborate and provide examples from my personal research, but I do not wish to make this email longer for anyone than necessary

What this boils down to is "common sense". We all possess common sense, although at times we choose to not exercise it. Especially in times of great confusion, we look to an expert to tell us what to do. That's normal after all we're human, right? That does not mean we should abandon our gut instinct or common sense because of fear. Using emotion as a guide to investing is a dangerous thing. Take for example the recent 1,000 point drop in the Dow Jones market. While the news of Greece's turmoil brought the markets down 340 points, it was the errant mistake of an institutional trader that was largely responsible for the further drop in the market. A trader meant to place trades in the millions of dollars however, a few zeroes too many punched in and the trade became billions of dollars......those trades lit up the board at the NYSE in an instant, panic ensued, thus causing a bigger sell off and further decline in the markets. Moments later the trades were corrected and the market recovered in a big way to end down only 347 points. Emotional investing, one person sees a sell off and everyone follows before stepping back and seeing what actually was going on. There was no major news other than the trouble with Greece that day and since we just went through the China economy issue a few weeks earlier, which did not cause dramatic 1,000 point drops, so it stands to reason that something else may have happened. However, panic became the overriding force. Understandable to be sure but emotion does not have to rule your choices......there are ways to combat that and help protect from losses. Nothing is guaranteed as I mentioned before, but things can be curbed to an investor's benefit.

The one thing I would caution anyone is NOT to go into any investment based on someone's guarantee that you'll make a great deal of money. If someone is promising you the world on a silver platter, take a look and see how they are living. If this person or persons are guaranteeing you that the world is yours if you invest and they are really no better off (financially) than you, then I would question the advice let alone question how much that person has actually invested in the "guarantee". Any smart money person invests their money using their own advice and does not promise more than is realistically able to be delivered. Making money or the desire to make money is not just for the privileged few....let's face it we all want to be wealthy. In that vein, I would question anyone who pushes on me to invest with them and take a risk when that individual is not willing to take the same risk or take the risk at all. Hmmmmmm. Also, any smart money person has no problem with you as the investor making inquiries or questioning the advice being given. It's your money, you should understand what is going on with it. Someone who balks at questions or becomes upset when questioned has something to hide and therefore I say RUN!

A good example of this on a larger scale was the Madoff scheme. Madoff operated his investment firm differently than most. Most of the money that came through his firm was not via the front door, but by word of mouth. People were "initiated" into the exclusive club via "macher" (Jewish for big shot) who dropped Madoff's name at a country club, golf tournament, or other big shot event where "big fish" would be present. Once the fish was hooked, off the fish was whisked to "Madoff Land" where that person was wined and dined into turning over millions of dollars to be invested with Madoff. After all there were so many people making money (this of course according to Madoff, his minions, and doctored statements that showed quarter after quarter of profit since 1990 with no loss) even in a down market, it has to be okay, right? Those whom agreed with Madoff were allowed to invest with him....those who questioned him and his tactics were abruptly shown the door and their money refused. The people that invested with Madoff were not amateurs. There were well known celebrities, business men/women, pension funds and mutual funds. However, the thought of being excluded from the "in-crowd" and the threat of being kicked out should one ask too many questions along with the scent of what seemed to be "easy money" was far too powerful a drug for some to just listen to common sense and walk.

Does this mean that "get rich quick schemes" are all bad? Not necessarily. There are those lucky strikes of lightning, but a lucky strike is pretty close to one in a million. Asking a couple of CQ (common sense quotient) questions at the outset of an investment may prevent you from losing money. Losing one or two thousand dollars on a small investment may not seem like a big deal to some, but give a mouse a cookie......meaning if someone takes you for a couple thousand now, they may try a bigger stake down the road.

Bottom line whatever is being invested in should be what's best for the investor, NOT the advisor. It's your money. It is this author's opinion that anyone who says otherwise does not have your best interest at heart. You will have a pretty decent idea what is best for you.....so listen to your common sense more and "experts" a little less.

As always, this is just my two cents: That and $3.50 will get you a latte at Starbucks So take the opinion for what it may be worth.......comments, criticism, and questions are always welcome!

T-Fo


***Note regarding article author: Bill Gross is a managing director of PIMCO. I have attached a link for his biography here- http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Bios/Bill+Gross.htm